In 2018, the real estate market saw notable shifts, making it crucial to review the 2018 Year Real Estate Market Report. Inventory levels fluctuated, affecting price appreciation. Mortgage rates played a pivotal role in buyer demand and seller activity.
First-time homebuyers and millennials influenced market dynamics. Understanding luxury market trends and foreclosure activity is essential. Geographic variations posed challenges but also offered investment opportunities. Market analysis provides valuable takeaways for buyers and sellers.
The 2018 Year In Review
The Noosa property market in 2018 was a year of headlines, record results, and ultimately a year that confirmed that Noosa is one of the country’s hottest property markets. The fitting finale to 2018 was one of the most successful trading periods for local businesses in over a decade with visitor numbers some of the highest ever experienced. For real estate, the market conditions are tight, lower turnover, higher prices, and limited supply is the new world order and demand remained consistently high throughout the year and has continued strongly into 2019.
On a macro level when combining Noosa’s prestige markets (Noosaville, Noosa Heads, Sunshine, and Sunrise Beach), the number of transactions was slightly down vs YA from 501 sales in 2017 to 445 in 2018 however the average sale price was up significantly +16% vs the previous year and is now an eye–watering $1.429m.
The luxury property market has been the darling of the nation’s property markets with now 6 sales over $ 10 million in a little over a year peaking with the sales of one of Sunshine Beach’s most extraordinary properties, 23 Webb Road selling for $18M.
– 23 Webb Road $18m
– 46 Seaview Terrace $15.2m
– 2A Belmore Terrace $14m
– 5 Allambi Rise $11.2m
– 312 Teewah Beach $10.75m
– 29-31 Wyuna Drive $10.3m
The strong demand for prestige property has continued despite the tightening lending conditions brought on by the Banking Royal Commission. We are continuing to experience positive migration from southern markets with people seeking tree or sea changes. Buyers from southern markets are taking the opportunity to realize the significant capitalization over the last 4 years from their principle market buying into the Noosa market which has experienced much more moderate sustainable growth over that same period. There has been a significant shift in the market dynamics away from growth speculation and holiday home buying to a much more sustainable property market based on everyday occupation and lifestyle change.
Scarcity and a lack of supply are the new norm for buyers and sellers and we are not expecting any change to that in 2019, there is no relief valve, Noosa’s population is capped because there are no significant development sites left and it is surrounded by National Parks.
2019 Outlook
We are off to a very strong start with contracts on $11.3m of property so far and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight. The team has a significant number of unmet buyer briefs for properties ranging from $700k to $15m.
The handing down of the Royal Commission into the Banking and Finance sector seems to have little to no effect on the buyer behavior in the prestige end of the market however, in the family home $800k $1.5m range has shown to be a bit sluggish due to the tougher lending environment. Strong results are still on offer, but we expect that days on the market could extend a little as the year rolls on. At a high level, although lending restrictions and uncertainty around the federal election will continue to impact the attitude and urgency of buyers, the market drivers look positive with the region’s significant infrastructure pipeline, coupled with strong interstate migration and improving employment opportunities, we expect that will further sustain the market.
Here is the wrap on the latest trends in some of Noosa’s most talked about suburbs.
Noosa Waters
Noosa Waters is an exclusive canal estate next to the Noosa River precinct that features some of the most prestigious waterfront homes in Noosa. Many homes in the estate have won design awards and feature stunning designs by the likes of Chris Clout, Frank Macchia, Stephen Kidd, and Paul Clout. There are only 440 homes on the waterfront and a small selection of townhouses making Noosa Waters a very exclusive estate, affording the lucky few an extraordinary lifestyle. The canals are protected from public boating traffic and are non-tidal due to the lock & weir. The lock joins Noosa Waters directly to the Noosa River. This is the perfect arrangement for ease of access to waterways and the ocean whilst maintaining security and privacy for owners in Noosa Waters.
Scarcity, lack of choice, and a market that has favored the seller are the theme for the Noosa Waters waterfront with the number of transactions declining from 10% turnover to 6% or 32 sales for 2018. With the decline in volume, the total sales also fell from $101m to $65m. There was as expected an increase in the average sale price from $2.215m in 2017 to $2.249m in 2018. The big shift was the tightening of transactions at the top end of the market ($3m+), with 10 sales over $3m in 2017 and only 4 in 2018. Ultimately we are left with unsatisfied buyers, especially in the top end of the market. There are several records that have been re-set across the waterfront with street records being set in Seamount Quay, land sales on Saltwater aspect records on the Promontory.
Noosa Heads
The heart and soul of Noosa’s worldwide popularity, pristine beaches, national parks, surf beaches, stunning dining, and shopping. From a property perspective, Noosa Heads has some of Noosa’s absolute jewels and rivals some of the most expensive and tightly held property in the country.
Noosa Heads is largely made up of Noosa Sound, Little Cove, and Noosa Hill and all have unique micro-market trends.
Noosa Heads has powered through the $1m median house price in April 2018 and is around 30% above the previous peak market performance from 2007-08. Days on the market are the shortest of all of Noosa’s suburbs at less than an average of 60 days on the market. Vendor discounting has recently increased as sellers feel out of the market for premiums, in some cases some price adjustment has had to be made to close the deals and in the last data read had moved from a low of 3% discount in October 2017 to 9% in October 2018. Noosa Junction is a precinct to watch, there will be some significant redevelopment and commercial stimulus in the area, and we have seen house prices follow that type of precinct improvement in the past, Noosaville is a great example of that. Lifestyle and budget will quickly iron out micro markets that will suit you, but one thing is for sure, Noosa Heads has some of the most desirable properties in South East Queensland and is primed for future growth, so be confident when purchasing and act quickly to meet the market.
Sunshine Beach
One of Noosa’s most sought-after and revered suburbs known worldwide for its incredible beaches, surf, and cool dining strip. All this popularity makes it one of the most expensive suburbs in QLD with a Median House price above $1M and climbing.
Market dynamics are strong and favor the seller, accelerating growth has been the trend over the last 5 years, surpassing the previous peak median house price of $1.2m in 2017. The volume of sales in Sunshine Beach has bucked the Noosa trend with volume increasing 57% vs the previous year from 44 Sales in 2017 to 69 in 2018. There is also a clear cyclical selling cycle with peak selling seasons over summer months being the dominant selling period. Days on the market have been increasing with sellers feeling out the opportunity for a premium at the same time as competing with more properties on the market leading to longer campaigns. Vendor discounting has also increased slightly through the year but the last data read was just under 5% which is consistent with neighbouring markets. The truly great positions are few and far between with aspect, views, and proximity all impacting value. If the right opportunity presents itself in Sunshine Beach, act as if you may wait a lifetime for it to reappear.
Noosaville
Often referred to by locals as the “Village”, Noosaville and the river precinct have long been a playground for friends and families. The open parkland that traverses the banks of the Noosa River is equal parts beautiful and peaceful. The perfect place for picturesque walks, family gatherings, and dining ranging from casual to some of the finest on offer; not to mention being the hub for the aquatic playground that the Noosa River has to offer.
Noosaville has been one of the hero marketplaces in Noosa attracting strong almost linear growth over the last 5 years and is now nearly 30% above the previous peak price achieved back in 2007 – 08. Days on the market remain low with the average home selling in circa 50 days and vendor discounting is some of the lowest we can see across the Noosa region. Noosaville precinct streets and Noosa Waters will take a little immersion to fully understand the dynamics of the value but with some assistance from the better agents that specialize in the area, it quickly made sense and decisions can be quickly reached.
Hinterland
Noosa has some of the most picturesque hinterland in the country all just a stone’s throw from world-class beaches, outstanding shopping and dining precincts of Noosa Heads, Noosaville & Sunshine Beach. The Hinterland has traditionally been slower to lift and follow the upward trends of its beachside neighbors and is only just now reaching similar levels to the previous property price peak of 2008.
Sustainable moderate growth has been the trend in both 2015-16 and much more aggressive growth in the last 2 years has median house prices at $851k in the latest read in RP Data. Days on the market are the shortest they have been for several years although are showing signs of extending a little over the last couple of months but remain under 100 days. The ‘Tree-change” market continues to attract interest and buyers capitalized from Southern markets, we can expect minimal vendor discounting at around 5%. There are so many options in the hinterland with Doonan and Tinbeerwah being the most sought-after locations due to proximity but keep an eye on Weyba Downs and Cooroibah and partner with agents that know the market well so that you can make the most of their local knowledge.